23 FEB - MARKET COMMENTARY, REAL ESTATE, MARKET UPDATE

Hopeful for settled weather and market conditions

With February just about out the back door and Autumn on our doorstep, the sun is finally shining. Funny that.

A distracted first month of the year saw some hard-to-read market stats.

With a meagre volume of property sold at just 137 homes, this is the lowest turnover ever since data collection, apart from April 2020, which resulted from our first COVID lockdown.

A combination of bank tightening, interest rate increases, cost of living crisis and buyer confidence has seen albeit good numbers looking at properties, many sitting on the fence to make a decision. 

Median sale price is down 12% year on year; however, from November 2021's peak, the movement represents a shift of 29.5% and a rolling average looking closer to the 20 per cent rather than 14's or 15's that the media has tried to portray.

With this median sale price movement, many cashed-up first home buyers are back in the market trying to secure properties before the following market change. Maybe a sign that everyone feels we are not far from the bottom now. 

Stock levels are on the rise but maybe only marginally. With March traditionally the peak, we expect to see more choices for buyers and potentially more challenging selling conditions.

With the OCR up this week by another 0.5, we fear that despite the banks suggesting they have already adjusted current rates in anticipation, we may still see further rate rises to come.

With nearly half of NZ's mortgages to roll over this year, some will be hit hard by the significant increase in holding these mortgages from what they were on.

Still, good properties will never be cheaper, and this is a great time to get in and lock in something before the market makes its surge back up.

Too early to understand the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle and Auckland floods on the coming recession or the time it will take us to rebound out of it and a more positive marketplace.

Maybe something more to discuss in our following market update.

Stock Versus Median Sale Price

Market Snapshot